{"schemaVersion":"1.0","document":{"id":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","originalTitle":"Chief Economists Outlook September","category":"economy","categoryLabel":"경제·금융","publisher":"World Economic Forum","language":"en","publicationYear":2026,"publicationMonth":9,"publishedOn":"2026-09-22","datePrecision":"day","dateSource":"https://www.weforum.org/publications/chief-economists-outlook-september-2026/","coverUrl":"/assets/covers/library-7e12d86215718ec8f168facb.jpg","tags":["경제전망","거시경제","성장","chief economists","economic outlook"],"pages":38,"bytes":11310542,"sha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","searchable":true,"url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf","chunksUrl":"/api/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/chunks","extraction":{"totalPages":38,"pagesWithSubstantialText":38,"sparsePages":[],"method":"pdf-text","ocrPerformed":false},"relatedPublications":[{"series":"커스텀 브리프","issue":"12호","url":"/archive/custom-12","title":"가장 느린 곳이 속도를 결정한다 — 전부 직접 만들 수 없는 회사가 공급망 인공지능을 고르는 법"}],"metadataNote":"한국어 제목·분류·검색어는 원문 탐색을 위한 편집 정보입니다."},"extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","total":118,"offset":0,"nextOffset":20,"chunks":[{"id":"fd0fc9989ad281ee16ca1367e83f9d6a4172e1bef383e527b0918a0d189dcbb6","documentId":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","documentSha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","ordinal":0,"page":1,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월 · 1쪽","text":"Centre for the New\nEconomy and Society\n\nChief Economists’ Outlook\n\nI N S I G H T R E P O R T\nS E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 6","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb#page-1","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf#page=1","page":1},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"9ab8021259b4b055b8c919f8683d971df40b3f7fc91d5034cb117ac9cdc3fcc0","documentId":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","documentSha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","ordinal":1,"page":2,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월 · 2쪽","text":"Images: Getty Images, Unsplash\n\nContents\n\nExecutive summary 4\n\n1 Disruption and resilience 5\n\nPast and future resilience 6\n\nAI acceleration, backlash and competition 11\n\n2 The cost-of-living outlook 14\n\nRising costs and real incomes 14\n\nGovernment trade-offs 16\n\n3 Trade, investment and regional growth 17\n\nTrade and investment flows 17\n\nRegional growth prospects 20\n\nGlobal data: August 2026 27\n\nContributors 31\n\nEndnotes 34","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb#page-2","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf#page=2","page":2},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"d29ba0e4283e45fe1aaf0e031b53db145896612a83b7d42769fa17e68b647d4d","documentId":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","documentSha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","ordinal":2,"page":2,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월 · 2쪽","text":"Disclaimer\n Generative AI tools were used to\n support aspects of drafting after analysis\n was completed. All outputs were\n independently reviewed, verified and\n approved by the authors.\n This document is published by the\n World Economic Forum as a contribution\n to a project, insight area or interaction.\n The findings, interpretations and\n conclusions expressed herein are a result\n of a collaborative process facilitated and\n endorsed by the World Economic Forum\n but whose results do not necessarily\n represent the views of the World Economic\n Forum, nor the entirety of its Members,\n Partners or other stakeholders.\n© 2026 World Economic Forum. All rights\n reserved. No part of this publication may\n be reproduced or transmitted in any form\n or by any means, including photocopying\n and recording, or by any information\n storage and retrieval system.\n\nChief Economists’ Outlook September 2","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb#page-2","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf#page=2","page":2},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"d9e6d444c1fb42967f1f9162649c2b7e4c4079173e5cf780fb4478d0433ba6b8","documentId":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","documentSha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","ordinal":3,"page":3,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월 · 3쪽","text":"September 2026\nChief Economists’\nOutlook\n\nThis briefing builds on the latest policy development research as well as\n consultations and surveys with leading chief economists from both the public\n and private sectors, organized by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the\nNew Economy and Society.\n\nIt aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economic\n environment and identify priorities for further action by policy-makers and\n business leaders in response to the compounding shocks to the global\n economy from geoeconomic, geopolitical and technological developments.\n\nThe survey featured in this briefing was conducted from 4 to 20 August 2026.\n\nChief Economists’ Outlook September 3","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb#page-3","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf#page=3","page":3},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"4d077ba81f5d7ec802af06b5df99cff622eebb41c018b2345fadebb289e7b7bc","documentId":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","documentSha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","ordinal":4,"page":4,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월 · 4쪽","text":"Executive summary","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb#page-4","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf#page=4","page":4},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"b2d8baa253fbb6dc8c46273c3668f2fb0d52754c6941f51cae9ba59d6bc7f69f","documentId":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","documentSha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","ordinal":5,"page":4,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월 · 4쪽","text":"In the September 2026 edition, the outlook for the Cost-of-living pressures are expected to intensify. global economy is stabilizing. Although 45% of A majority of chief economists anticipate increases surveyed chief economists still expect conditions across household expenditure, led by food at 88%, to weaken over the next 12 months, down from electricity at 83% and transport at 77%. Expectations 89% in May, a majority of 56% now anticipate for real incomes vary widely, with the weakest readings an unchanged or stronger outlook. Inflation in the Middle East and North Africa, Europe, and Latin expectations have also moderated: 50% expect America and the Caribbean, while South-East Asia and global inflation to rise, compared with 94% in May. India stand out positively. Governments are expected to favour broad, visible responses: tax reductions on The global economy’s resilience through successive essential goods (60%), consumption subsidies (54%) shocks has rested on policy support and and price caps (50%) are viewed as most likely. adaptation. Fiscal support is the most frequently","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb#page-4","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf#page=4","page":4},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"a30a5ea7bd61fd7533b6b1c33d6a1935b00862f6c1c7e8e313128dabb9ea5108","documentId":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","documentSha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","ordinal":6,"page":4,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월 · 4쪽","text":"cited source since 2020, at 69%, followed by Geoeconomic fragmentation is expected to deepen, economic diversification and flexible supply chains. with 77% anticipating a further increase over the Yet only 25% of surveyed chief economists expect next year. Yet trade and investment continue to the global economy to become more resilient in adapt: approximately two-thirds expect global trade the next 12 months. Geopolitical conflicts are the volumes to rise, and 83% expect Chinese exports leading source of uncertainty, selected by 97%, to markets outside the US to increase. Tariffs are followed by asset price corrections at 58%. Future expected to rise in the US and to a lesser extent resilience is expected to depend more on flexible in Europe, but not elsewhere. Global foreign direct supply chains, technology and energy market investment (FDI) is expected to increase, according adaptation, while fiscal support falls sharply in to 56% of respondents. The US leads the ranking of expected importance as public finances constrain favourable business environments for multinational","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb#page-4","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf#page=4","page":4},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"d975fba9d7041ab7a9f6b362c7bbbfe78796353e3105136e6406ff046569597b","documentId":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","documentSha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","ordinal":7,"page":4,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월 · 4쪽","text":"room to respond. China and the US are viewed as companies, followed by South-East Asia and best able to withstand future shocks. Europe (both up one position). India has fallen to fourth place, and China remains fifth. Artificial intelligence (AI) remains the leading source of optimism. Over the next 12 months, 97% of Regional growth prospects have strengthened but respondents expect AI adoption to increase, and remain uneven. India and South-East Asia receive the 69% expect the technology to unlock meaningful strongest assessments, with 74% and 73% expecting productivity gains. The technology race between strong or very strong growth, respectively. In Central China and the US is expected to narrow, with 69% Asia, coming in third, this share drops to 44%. In expecting Chinese large language models (LLMs) the US, two-thirds of respondents expect moderate to fully catch up to their US counterparts. Benefits growth in the next 12 months. China’s outlook from AI adoption are expected to manifest across has weakened, as resilient exports and high-tech","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb#page-4","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf#page=4","page":4},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"cec5e178cb77a61d47c14603f3e7e2ebb3f4eb577b0ee8bb2ea7eddaa899bcfb","documentId":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","documentSha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","ordinal":8,"page":4,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월 · 4쪽","text":"all industries within the next three years, although manufacturing contrast with subdued consumption digital sectors remain in the lead. While 78% and investment. Europe has improved modestly but expect data centre investment to contribute remains the weakest region, with 61% expecting weak significantly to global growth, 61% do not expect or very weak growth. Expectations have recovered comparable job creation, and 79% of chief for Japan and the Middle East and North Africa, economists surveyed anticipate that data centre and strengthened for Sub-Saharan Africa and expansion will face significant pushback from local Latin America and the Caribbean. Monetary policy communities. Respondents also expect global paths are diverging: tighter settings are expected in investment to increase across nuclear power, Japan, the euro area, and the US; looser policy in renewables and fossil fuels. China; and broadly unchanged settings in India.\n\nChief Economists’ Outlook September 4","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb#page-4","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf#page=4","page":4},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"2702c138b634ebb76be4eb0ea9c12a0fad0d40632a2eaf970c6b4e237b5e00c6","documentId":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","documentSha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","ordinal":9,"page":5,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월 · 5쪽","text":"1 Disruption\n and resilience\n\nIn September 2026, the outlook for the global the prospects of artificial intelligence (AI) driving economy is stabilizing. The latest Chief Economists technological progress and productivity gains. Survey reflects an upward shift in sentiment, with more than half of respondents expecting the Views on future global inflation among surveyed outlook to remain unchanged or improve. In total, chief economists have improved substantially. While 45% of respondents expect global conditions to 94% of respondents anticipated rising inflation in weaken over the coming year, down from 89% in May, now only 50% share this view for the next May. On the downside, ongoing geopolitical and 12 months. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) geoeconomic turmoil gives cause for concern, expects global headline inflation to increase from asset price corrections remain a threat, and rising 4.1% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026 before easing to costs of living exert increasing pressure. On the 3.9% in 2027, with oil, gas, fertilizer and food","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb#page-5","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf#page=5","page":5},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"accfe45442f73d784d91fc00426ee668810e5aa6a9e4afb386338679dc61ded4","documentId":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","documentSha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","ordinal":10,"page":5,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월 · 5쪽","text":"upside, the global economy has proven remarkably prices transmitting the energy shock.1 Yet concerns resilient. The outlook for global trade is positive, and remain, particularly about the rising cost of living. chief economists surveyed remain optimistic about Section 2 of this report explores this topic further.\n\nFigure 1. The global economic outlook\nLooking at the next 12 months, what are your expectations for the future condition of the global economy?\n\nMuch weaker Somewhat weaker Unchanged Somewhat stronger Much stronger\n\n100\n\n3\n\n50 41\n 9\n 42(%) 17 23 17 19\n 11\n 8\n 9 20 41 54 28 17 28 3 39\n 0respondents\nof\n 42\n 53 47 68 39Share 17 61 56 69 37\n\n50 3\n\n3 6 6\n 39 21\n 3\n\n100 May 23 Jan 24 May 24 Sep 24 Jan 25 May 25 Sep 25 Jan 26 May 26 Sep 26\n\nSource: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2026).\n\nChief Economists’ Outlook September 5","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb#page-5","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf#page=5","page":5},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"b6cb9a27fd810309cd2de700efc8823d38021b782d91eaffb05d532023f121b4","documentId":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","documentSha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","ordinal":11,"page":6,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월 · 6쪽","text":"Figure 2. Global context: Inflation\nLooking at the next 12 months, do you agree/disagree with the following statements?\n\nStrongly disagree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree Strongly agree\n\nGlobal inflation will rise 28 22 42 8\n\nShare of respondents (%)\nSource: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2026).\n\nPast and future resilience\n\nThe outlook among the surveyed chief economists the IMF’s tracker of close to 900 measures across\n is improving despite ongoing shocks to the global about 170 economies after the 2026 energy shock.2\n economy. Resilience has been remarkable given These interventions helped to prevent abrupt losses\n the degree of disruption, but it came at a cost. of demand and purchasing power, but they also\n Fiscal support, selected by 69% of surveyed chief strained public budgets to a point where the same\n economists in their top five responses, has ranked degree of fiscal flexibility looks increasingly unlikely\n as the leading source of resilience since 2020. in the future.\n The scale of the policy response remains visible in","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb#page-6","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf#page=6","page":6},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"7ab59092d09c5ee81754a06535e9923655c3516da0ce5e6aaf692bcdf106f23c","documentId":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","documentSha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","ordinal":12,"page":6,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월 · 6쪽","text":"Figure 3. Sources of resilience since 2020\nWhich of the following factors have contributed the most to the resilience of the global economy through multiple shocks and\nsources of uncertainty since 2020? [Select the top five]\n\nFiscal support and government financing capacity 69\n\nEconomic diversification and flexible supply chain networks 67\n\nTechnological acceleration and innovation 61\n\nCentral bank credibility and responsive monetary policy 53\n\nRobust financial systems 50\n\nEnergy market adaptation and diversification 50\n\nGlobal trade adaptability and reconfiguration 47\n\nBusiness adaptability and innovation 44\n\nStrong household balance sheets 28\n\nGlobal cooperation and crisis coordination 14\n\nNational preparedness/crisis management and effective public administration 11\n\nStrong labour markets and workforce adaptability 6\n\nShare of respondents (%)\nSource: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2026).\n\nChief Economists’ Outlook September 6","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb#page-6","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf#page=6","page":6},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"73ef56f63d2669db7df5ad0abce7dbc375483c893a1c44203e50a2cd16094b8f","documentId":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","documentSha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","ordinal":13,"page":7,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월 · 7쪽","text":"Coming in second overall, more than two-thirds of complete the top five most frequently selected\n respondents identify economic diversification and sources of resilience, suggesting that existing\n flexible supply chain networks as a key source of systems have played a significant part in mitigating\n resilience. In the case of the energy supply shock recent shocks. Global cooperation, national\n induced by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, preparedness and crisis management, as well\n the impact was mitigated by a combination of as strong labour markets, were among the least\n alternative routing and adjustments throughout frequently selected sources of resilience since\n the supply chain.3 Technological acceleration and 2020. Looking at the next 12 months, however, the\n innovation stand at 61%. Central bank credibility outlook remains uncertain, with only 25% of chief\n at 53% and robust financial systems at 50% economists expecting resilience to increase.\n\nFigure 4. Resilience outlook\nLooking at the next 12 months, do you agree/disagree with the following statements?","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb#page-7","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf#page=7","page":7},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"dbe0a761eae1ce05ff23deb039ee1529e63eb01b70445952a9618591a11d2eb4","documentId":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","documentSha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","ordinal":14,"page":7,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월 · 7쪽","text":"Strongly disagree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree Strongly agree\n\nThe global economy will become more resilient 8 31 36 25\n\nShare of respondents (%)\nSource: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2026).","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb#page-7","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf#page=7","page":7},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"aa9fffbe709a1b65822e1ad7bba18d802db620834bac37adf914eb31188f81bb","documentId":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","documentSha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","ordinal":15,"page":7,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월 · 7쪽","text":"Nearly all surveyed chief economists include commercial vessels could choke off seaborne grain\n geopolitical conflicts among their top five sources exports from two of the world’s largest suppliers and\n of global economic uncertainty over the next 12 reduce global cereal exports by as much as 17%\n months. The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and this year.5 Direct side-effects of geopolitical conflicts\n Europe remain of particular concern. In late August, also feature prominently in the results. Trade and\n Iran had issued threats against 46 commercial investment restrictions were listed by 42%, energy\n vessels and traffic had fallen to among the lowest shocks by 39% and supply chain disruptions by\n levels of the conflict.4 Escalating attacks by Russia 17% of respondents as likely significant sources of\n and Ukraine on each other’s Black Sea ports and global economic uncertainty in the next 12 months.\n\nChief Economists’ Outlook September 7","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb#page-7","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf#page=7","page":7},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"70341ecc2ed3542412f65c29a71491b29b99b6b3da6a9229ca873b7707271b29","documentId":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","documentSha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","ordinal":16,"page":8,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월 · 8쪽","text":"Figure 5. Sources of global uncertainty\nLooking at the next 12 months, how likely are the following to be a significant source of global economic uncertainty?\n[Select the top five]\n\nGeopolitical conflicts 97\n\nAsset price correction 58\n\nRapid technological change 44\n\nPolicy instability 44\n\nTrade and investment restrictions 42\n\nExtreme weather events 39\n\nEnergy shocks 39\n\nMonetary policy shifts 19\n\nInflation shocks 19\n\nSovereign debt crises 17\n\nMigration crises 17\n\nSupply chain disruptions 17\n\nDomestic conflicts 14\n\nCyberattacks 14\n\nExchange rate volatility 6\n\nInequality levels 6\n\nFood crises 6\n\nPublic health emergencies 3\n\nSource: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2026). Share of respondents (%)","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb#page-8","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf#page=8","page":8},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"b36441ecc6953c9c49f412fed705b023f2eca3926072bc9c1e2ef2fc49b640b0","documentId":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","documentSha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","ordinal":17,"page":8,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월 · 8쪽","text":"A correction in asset price ranks second, with 58% rapid technological change as a top source of identifying it as a top-five source of uncertainty, future uncertainty, with such change driving making it the only other risk selected by a clear and potentially amplifying the risk of asset price majority. The Bank for International Settlements corrections while creating ample opportunities (BIS) cautions that the optimism surrounding AI for new breakthroughs. may not last, while also highlighting persistent financial vulnerabilities and pointing to compressed Policy instability was also selected by 44% of risk premia and stretched equity valuations as respondents. Among future global events, the US scope indicators for the unwinding potential.6 A midterm elections stand out as potentially disruptive. preview of how quickly fortunes can reverse in a The chief economists surveyed are somewhat split heated environment became apparent when a on this question. While 31% agree or strongly agree US hedge fund fell into distress after chip stocks that the US midterms could significantly impact","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb#page-8","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf#page=8","page":8},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"88b1428a5d70e5c01b8fef50af9e544ae5cc8e123abb0a50cb4fe53779519d45","documentId":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","documentSha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","ordinal":18,"page":8,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월 · 8쪽","text":"declined in late July.7 Of respondents, 44% selected global economic policy, 39% disagree.\n\nChief Economists’ Outlook September 8","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb#page-8","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf#page=8","page":8},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"3f2df6b5a25258ac6f3d4aa110f9403f7dbef4696c007ab493688e8d2ba3cb74","documentId":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb","documentSha256":"7e12d86215718ec8f168facb37812337b8b0c3fb625a3935ca8dfd7ee8cce156","extractionVersion":"41e79a9e08fa9d2b63402d3b4eb5870aba6fefbde1ec516210d4a0917e991379","ordinal":19,"page":9,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월 · 9쪽","text":"Figure 6. US elections\nLooking at the next 12 months, do you agree/disagree with the following statements?\n\nStrongly disagree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree Strongly agree\n\nThe result of the forthcoming US midterm election will\n 39 31 14 17\nhave a significant impact on economic policy globally\n\nShare of respondents (%)\nSource: Chief Economists Survey. (August 2026).","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 9월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb#page-9","pdfUrl":"/library/7e12d86215718ec8f168facb/original.pdf#page=9","page":9},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"}]}