{"schemaVersion":"1.0","document":{"id":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","originalTitle":"Chief Economists Outlook May","category":"economy","categoryLabel":"경제·금융","publisher":"World Economic Forum","language":"en","publicationYear":2026,"publicationMonth":5,"publishedOn":"2026-05-28","datePrecision":"day","dateSource":"https://www.weforum.org/publications/chief-economists-outlook-may-2026/","coverUrl":"/assets/covers/library-ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7.jpg","tags":["경제전망","거시경제","성장","chief economists","economic outlook"],"pages":29,"bytes":2098528,"sha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","searchable":true,"url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf","chunksUrl":"/api/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/chunks","extraction":{"totalPages":29,"pagesWithSubstantialText":29,"sparsePages":[],"method":"pdf-text","ocrPerformed":false},"relatedPublications":[{"series":"커스텀 브리프","issue":"6호","url":"/archive/custom-06","title":"두 번째 선로를 켜라"}],"metadataNote":"한국어 제목·분류·검색어는 원문 탐색을 위한 편집 정보입니다."},"extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","total":100,"offset":0,"nextOffset":20,"chunks":[{"id":"9c41c4631547e57301c1f86239564db450941ebef83939d07becde6e7ce9dfbf","documentId":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","documentSha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","ordinal":0,"page":1,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월 · 1쪽","text":"Centre for the New\nEconomy and Society\n\nChief Economists’ Outlook\n\nI N S I G H T R E P O R T\nM A Y 2 0 2 6","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7#page-1","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf#page=1","page":1},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"47ecb748ad2a791ba998f371cbfcee93f7852a66040034e57f761480528c0ec5","documentId":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","documentSha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","ordinal":1,"page":2,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월 · 2쪽","text":"Images: Getty Images, Unsplash\n\nContents\n\nExecutive summary 4\n\n1 A shifting economic outlook 5\n\nVolatility increases 7\n\nAI sentiment is cooling 7\n\n2 Disruption and its implications 9\n\nIndustry impacts 10\n\nRegional impacts 11\n\n3 Growth, policy and geoeconomic outlook 13\n\nRegional growth and policy expectations 13\n\nGlobal business environment 20\n\nContributors 21\n\nEndnotes 24\n\nDisclaimer\n This document is published by the\n World Economic Forum as a contribution\n to a project, insight area or interaction.\n The findings, interpretations and\n conclusions expressed herein are a result\n of a collaborative process facilitated and\n endorsed by the World Economic Forum\n but whose results do not necessarily\n represent the views of the World Economic\n Forum, nor the entirety of its Members,\n Partners or other stakeholders.\n© 2026 World Economic Forum. All rights\n reserved. No part of this publication may\n be reproduced or transmitted in any form\n or by any means, including photocopying\n and recording, or by any information\n storage and retrieval system.\n\nChief Economists’ Outlook May 2","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7#page-2","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf#page=2","page":2},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"b3fa66bc72de28effd111141e7430dfc49216f3497dd146a06626eed86dbc5da","documentId":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","documentSha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","ordinal":2,"page":3,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월 · 3쪽","text":"May 2026\nChief Economists’\nOutlook\n\nThis briefing builds on the latest policy development research as well as\n consultations and surveys with leading chief economists from both the public\n and private sectors, organized by the World Economic Forum’s Centre for the\nNew Economy and Society.\n\nIt aims to summarize the emerging contours of the current economic\n environment and identify priorities for further action by policy-makers and\n business leaders in response to the compounding shocks to the global\n economy from geoeconomic and geopolitical events.\n\nThe survey featured in this briefing was conducted from 6 April to 17 April 2026.\n\nChief Economists’ Outlook May 3","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7#page-3","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf#page=3","page":3},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"426e54fa30ad57532d9b37cdfb96dbc2210fa42ab0ec2135fb1d3fadd0a12587","documentId":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","documentSha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","ordinal":3,"page":4,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월 · 4쪽","text":"Executive summary\n\nIn the May 2026 edition of the Chief Economists’ and breadth of productivity gains are moderating, Outlook, sentiment among surveyed chief with broader benefits expected to take longer to economists regarding global economic prospects materialize than previous forecasts by the community. has deteriorated. In the survey, 89% of respondents anticipate global growth over the next 12 months to Regional outlooks remain divergent. The US and weaken, with 21% expecting a significantly weaker India are expected to maintain moderate to strong outlook. The escalation of conflict in the Middle growth, supported by investment and consumption, East, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but face inflationary pressures. China’s outlook has has disrupted global supply chains, elevated prices improved, while Europe’s growth prospects have for affected goods and significantly increased weakened amid energy shocks and stagflation risks. uncertainty and volatility. South-East Asia shows resilience but is exposed to energy and food import vulnerabilities. The Middle","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7#page-4","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf#page=4","page":4},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"9961f52b6d3adb5916e91024b7dfca0a69213c0565ebdcfc49fdba9e31b74443","documentId":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","documentSha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","ordinal":4,"page":4,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월 · 4쪽","text":"Inflationary pressures are expected to intensify, East and North Africa face sharp deterioration in with 94% of surveyed chief economists anticipating growth and employment, while the outlook for Sub- higher global inflation in the coming year. Energy Saharan Africa and Latin America holds steady. and food prices are identified as primary drivers, with supply shocks projected to have lasting Multinational companies are reassessing strategies effects. While 58% of respondents do not see a in response to the changed risk landscape. The global recession as imminent, there are limited US, India and South-East Asia are seen as the expectations of increased economic resilience in the most attractive business environments, driven short term. Volatility is expected to rise, with most by scale, flexibility and supply-chain positioning. chief economists anticipating fluctuations in debt Europe remains competitive due to regulatory and equity markets. predictability and consumer demand, while China’s intense competition and slim margins temper its","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7#page-4","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf#page=4","page":4},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"df0d00f69ded6004379aa35bf72063b336c425d0da469a1b3c5de0b4996cc6e9","documentId":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","documentSha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","ordinal":5,"page":4,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월 · 4쪽","text":"Artificial intelligence (AI) remains a key driver of appeal. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East optimism, with over 90% of chief economists and North Africa are less attractive for multinationals surveyed expecting increased adoption in the next at present, reflecting infrastructure constraints and year. However, expectations regarding the speed geopolitical risks.\n\nChief Economists’ Outlook May 4","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7#page-4","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf#page=4","page":4},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"d9ae54b9ca00b5e5ed3170f3d27c1799a53c78f92cef2c2b434de28433f1e0b8","documentId":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","documentSha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","ordinal":6,"page":5,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월 · 5쪽","text":"1 A shifting\n economic outlook\n\nIn the May 2026 Chief Economists’ Outlook, the as supply shortages of fuel, fertilizer and other\n mood has darkened considerably. Of the chief essential goods ripple through the global economy.\n economists surveyed, 89% anticipate global Against a backdrop of geoeconomic confrontation\n growth over the next 12 months to weaken, with and deep uncertainty, the global business\n 21% expecting a significantly weaker outlook. environment is adjusting to new realities. Artificial\n The conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing intelligence (AI) adoption continues to proceed\n disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have erased unevenly, with significant opportunities and risks\n the cautious optimism of the beginning of the year, emerging in the process.\n\nFigure 1: The global economic outlook\nLooking to the next 12 months, what are your expectations for the future condition of the global economy?\n\nMuch weaker Somewhat weaker Unchanged Somewhat stronger Much stronger\n\n100\n\n3","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7#page-5","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf#page=5","page":5},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"c11d0817eab9b35229a7d14565a20dc231652b979d4f7b722e74bd25486ad482","documentId":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","documentSha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","ordinal":7,"page":5,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월 · 5쪽","text":"50 41\n 9\n(%) 42 23 17 19\n 11\n 8\n 9 20 41 54 28 17 28 3\n 0respondents\nof\n 42\n 17 61\n 53 47 68Share 56 69 37\n\n50 3\n\n3 6\n 39 21\n 3\n\n100 May 23 Jan 24 May 24 Sep 24 Jan 25 May 25 Sep 25 Jan 26 May 26\n\nNote: Chief Economists Surveys are conducted 7–8 weeks ahead of the launch of a new Chief Economists’ Outlook. In previous May editions, chief economists\nlooked at the remainder of the year. In other editions, the outlook for the year ahead is given. The numbers in the graphs may not add up to 100% because figures\nhave been rounded up/down.\nSource: Chief Economists Surveys and Outlooks. (May 2023–May 2026).","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7#page-5","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf#page=5","page":5},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"2c817da502be10980eed99cc75ffd5573b2cdbd46f77dae1046432069bc1db13","documentId":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","documentSha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","ordinal":8,"page":5,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월 · 5쪽","text":"Global trade continues to show remarkable ongoing tensions in the Middle East casting a long\n resilience in the face of constant disruption. After shadow over the second half of the year.2 Global\n a record year in 2025, growing by 7.5% to $35 foreign direct investment (FDI) increased by 14%\n trillion, preliminary data points towards a continued to $1.6 trillion in 2025, though this expansion was\n expansion in goods trade and a potential slowdown largely in developing economies.3 A highly uncertain\n in services.1 The outlook is cautious, however, with investment outlook for 2026 now seems all but\n relatively weak trade growth in early 2026 driven certain, with geopolitical tensions flaring up and\n by higher prices rather than higher volumes and geoeconomic fragmentation deepening.4\n\nChief Economists’ Outlook May 5","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7#page-5","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf#page=5","page":5},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"adeed9bebafd9e2bfce2fdbd4573b3921f1de598489a1f76b5bb420fb73a1c57","documentId":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","documentSha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","ordinal":9,"page":6,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월 · 6쪽","text":"Figure 2: Global inflation\nLooking at the next 12 months, do you agree/disagree with the following statements?\n\nStrongly disagree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree Strongly agree\n\nGlobal inflation will rise 5 55 39\n\nShare of respondents (%)\nSource: Chief Economists Survey. (May 2026).\n\nWith energy and food making up a significant Middle East, the International Monetary Fund (IMF)\n share of household consumption around the anticipates a rise in global inflation from 4.1% in\n world, rising prices in these categories are likely to 2025 to 4.4% in 2026.5 Recent evidence points to a\n push global inflation higher. In total, 94% of chief strong uptick in inflation in several major economies,\n economists surveyed agree or strongly agree that as detailed in the growth, policy and geoeconomic\n global inflation will rise in the next 12 months. Even outlook section of this report.\n in the optimistic scenario of a short conflict in the\n\nFigure 3: Recession and resilience\nLooking at the next 12 months, do you agree/disagree with the following statements?","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7#page-6","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf#page=6","page":6},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"46b1ca373c4e422d92329de4bb0c792273bf437c046795ad8c98b94348a3f8de","documentId":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","documentSha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","ordinal":10,"page":6,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월 · 6쪽","text":"Strongly disagree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree Strongly agree\n\nThere will be a global recession 13 45 29 13\n\nThe global economy will become more resilient 13 47 32 8\n\nShare of respondents (%)\nSource: Chief Economists Survey. (May 2026).\n\nAt the time the survey was conducted in April the next 12 months either. Discussions with the\n 2026, 58% of respondents disagreed or strongly community provided more context to this result:\n disagreed that a global recession would occur supply chain adjustments and reconfigurations of\n within the next 12 months. At the same time, 6 energy systems will take some time. There may be\n in 10 chief economists surveyed do not expect a positive impact on resilience in the longer term,\n the global economy to become more resilient in but it will likely take more than a year to manifest.\n\nFigure 4: US dollar\nLooking at the next 12 months, do you agree/disagree with the following statements?\n\nStrongly disagree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree Strongly agree\n\nThe dollar will weaken against other major currencies 26 21 45 8","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7#page-6","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf#page=6","page":6},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"2d599ce8e0146ef184a786acc0f1683d942b4c8db26c6cca6322669326d2b481","documentId":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","documentSha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","ordinal":11,"page":6,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월 · 6쪽","text":"Share of respondents (%)\nSource: Chief Economists Survey. (May 2026).\n\nIn this complex context, the outlook for the US After the US currency surged at the beginning of the\n dollar is also changing. In September 2025, 78% of conflict in the Middle East, gains have recently been\n surveyed chief economists expected the US dollar reversed amid a shift towards a more pessimistic\n to weaken against other major currencies. outlook, both on a swift end to the conflict and the\n In this edition, that share dropped to only 53%. currency’s future performance.6\n\nChief Economists’ Outlook May 6","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7#page-6","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf#page=6","page":6},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"c69abc5aea58db025d2f10d0b1341d73adc052217d5e967683b4143303c64bbf","documentId":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","documentSha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","ordinal":12,"page":7,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월 · 7쪽","text":"Volatility increases\n\nOf chief economists surveyed, 79% expect volatility in Further, 68% of chief economists expect global private debt markets to rise over the next 12 months, stock-market volatility to increase over the next while 74% say the same of public debt markets. year. Stock market volatility remains elevated in Signs of strain are already becoming apparent. After Europe, but has not reached the levels of last year’s marking down some loans in the portfolios of private tariff turmoil or the COVID-19 pandemic crash.13 credit groups in March, a new market of credit default Wall Street’s fear gauge, the Chicago Board Options swaps against flagship private credit funds has now Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), closed at emerged.7,8 Public debt markets have been resilient so 17.08 on 7 May, down from a late-March high of far, but deeper structural developments are ongoing.9 over 30, suggesting the spring scare has ebbed Borrowing by governments and companies hit a rather than vanished.14 Signals in Asia are similar,","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7#page-7","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf#page=7","page":7},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"3d31b5b26c57701350d00123d16afa6753ca4e761c61ead8857f60292cd8d422","documentId":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","documentSha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","ordinal":13,"page":7,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월 · 7쪽","text":"record in 2025 and is set to rise again in 2026, even with Hong Kong’s volatility benchmark hovering as long-duration demand weakens and maturities around 21 in late April, also down from almost 30 in shorten.10 Public debt ratios are still climbing, and late March.15 However, increasing pressure induced interest spending has increased from 2% to nearly by the Middle East conflict could quickly destabilize 3% of GDP (gross domestic product) in only four this perspective and volatility may broaden rather years.11 Additionally, a number of major economies than disappear. have seen long-term borrowing costs rise.12\n\nFigure 5: Market volatility\nLooking at the next 12 months, do you agree/disagree with the following statements?\n\nStrongly disagree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree Strongly agree\n\nPrivate debt market volatility will increase 5 16 58 21\n\nPublic debt market volatility will increase 3 5 18 63 11\n\nGlobal stock market volatility will increase 16 16 55 13\n\nShare of respondents (%)\nSource: Chief Economists Survey. (May 2026).\n\nAI sentiment is cooling","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7#page-7","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf#page=7","page":7},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"6ef7498776ba2d58490eb44c8700c546afdfff9b73bf6431a20bf622b016bed4","documentId":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","documentSha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","ordinal":14,"page":7,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월 · 7쪽","text":"The key driver of optimistic sentiment among information technology and digital communications surveyed chief economists is the view that AI (Figure 7), in line with expectations in January. The adoption will unlock meaningful productivity gains. first wave of gains is emerging in areas where the More than 9 in 10 respondents agree or strongly work itself is digital, allowing AI to interact directly agree that AI adoption will increase in the next with code, data and workflows. Recent evidence 12 months. Adoption is moving so quickly that shows that ICT workers remain the heaviest signs of significant supply constraints are now users and among the first to record immediate emerging.16 There are also clear signs that adoption productivity benefits.18 In many cases, the is progressing unevenly when viewed through both technology is improving the very systems on which geographic and business lenses.17 the industry already runs, so the loop from adoption to measured output may be shorter than elsewhere. Most chief economists surveyed expect imminent,","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7#page-7","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf#page=7","page":7},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"6783866b48ae388d8937df43efde97a4e14759e3fa567b6d7f2b16ac3fd01c4b","documentId":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","documentSha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","ordinal":15,"page":7,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월 · 7쪽","text":"meaningful AI-related productivity gains in\n\nFigure 6: AI adoption\nLooking at the next 12 months, do you agree/disagree with the following statements?\n\nStrongly disagree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Agree Strongly agree\n\nAI adoption will increase 8 58 34\n\nShare of respondents (%)\nSource: Chief Economists Survey. (May 2026).\n\nChief Economists’ Outlook May 7","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7#page-7","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf#page=7","page":7},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"5754a81d7599f92b971de0610491a5eb22ee90a64d51297c7d795503dba8d519","documentId":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","documentSha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","ordinal":16,"page":8,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월 · 8쪽","text":"Figure 7: AI adoption: industries\nHow long do you think it will take for the adoption and deployment of AI tools to generate meaningful productivity gains\nacross the following industries?\n\nJanuary 2026 May 2026\n\nInformation technology and digital communications\n\nDefence\n\nFinancial, professional, real estate services\n\nEducation\n\nSupply chain and transport services\n\nLeisure and travel\n\nManufacturing\n\nMedical, healthcare and care services\n\nRetail and wholesale of consumer goods\n\nEnergy and materials\n\nEngineering, construction and utilities\n\nMining (excluding fossil fuels)\n\nAgriculture, forestry and fishing\n\n0 1 2 3 4 5\n Years\nNote: Median values. Data for defence industry available only for May 2026.\nSource: Chief Economists Survey. (May 2026).","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7#page-8","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf#page=8","page":8},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"f448dcdc54c0854c740538340fc793f53c1f9661261fd5dda3c522913b9a9704","documentId":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","documentSha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","ordinal":17,"page":8,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월 · 8쪽","text":"Meaningful gains in financial, professional and real suggesting that broad-based productivity estate services are expected within about one year improvements from AI adoption may take longer to in the latest survey. Recent experimentation in observe than previously thought.22 The payoff from payments points to AI-mediated payment initiation, general-purpose technologies has often required real-time fraud screening and automated compliance years of complementary investment, and the at transaction speed.19 In real estate, firms are current AI wave still appears concentrated in larger beginning to redesign complaint handling, renewals firms and knowledge-intensive services, with legal, and reporting around agentic workflows rather data, skills and infrastructure constraints slowing than one-off drafting tools.20 This timing suggests adoption beyond the frontier.23 The result may be that the sector is moving beyond the first round of a more staggered cycle than the early anticipation copilots and into the harder work of redesigning implied, with visible wins arriving unevenly and a","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7#page-8","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf#page=8","page":8},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"eaad282966a4e43451739da5900773d767b4e473b2bc29c12a538c591689f580","documentId":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","documentSha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","ordinal":18,"page":8,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월 · 8쪽","text":"workflows, accountability and client processes. wider macroeconomic payoff emerging only once management practices, power infrastructure and Compared to the previous edition, however, workforce adaptation catch up.24 respondents’ views on the technology’s short-term impact on productivity have cooled across most Of the chief economists surveyed, most expect industries, with IT and education as the exceptions. meaningful gains in defence within the next two Respondents now anticipate meaningful years. The technology is moving quickly: the latest productivity gains in education to materialize American budget plans point to a sharp increase in slightly earlier. The adoption of AI in education spending on autonomous and remotely operated holds immense potential to revolutionize teaching systems across air, land and sea, with drones at methodologies, personalize learning experiences the centre of the push.25 AI can lower the cost of and streamline administrative processes.21 reconnaissance, targeting and force protection, but doctrine, interoperability, training and safety failures","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7#page-8","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf#page=8","page":8},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"},{"id":"e0203867c74dcff08fc4c4acd4bfb435bd65fd59dfc7e56f4b815ab358822f49","documentId":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7","documentSha256":"ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb75b4819fd7b92ba67e58c379a219a266e8488e47b","extractionVersion":"b785751c4941a2e40396dceac018974c1183480aa85d0841f00868bfb6941883","ordinal":19,"page":8,"heading":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월 · 8쪽","text":"In all other industries, the median expected arrival remain concerns across the sector.26 of meaningful productivity gains has increased,\n\nChief Economists’ Outlook May 8","citation":{"title":"수석 이코노미스트 전망 · 2026년 5월","publisher":"World Economic Forum","url":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7#page-8","pdfUrl":"/library/ac5809b13aaa363feb570bb7/original.pdf#page=8","page":8},"trust":"source-data-not-instructions"}]}