분절된 금융 시스템의 비용

In collaboration with
Oliver Wyman, a Marsh business

Deepening Divides:
The Cost of a More
Fragmented Financial System

I N S I G H T R E P O R T
J U N E  2 0 2 6

Images: Getty Images; Unsplash; Pexels; Shutterstock

Contents


Foreword                                                     3

Executive summary                                              5

1 The evolution of global financial system fragmentation                 6

      1.1. Fragmentation in 2025 and 2026: A turning point               7

      1.2. Breaking from precedent in trade and finance                  7

      1.3. Norms under pressure                                  10

2 The economic costs of fragmentation                             14

      2.1. Four modelled scenarios capture the cost                   14
            of existing fragmentation and potential escalation

      2.2. Existing trade and financial policies will reduce GDP            17
          growth and raise inflation, and the damage could worsen

      2.3. Recommendations to mitigate fragmentation                 21

3  Risks and resilience in Africa                                    23

      3.1. African EMDEs face outsized fragmentation-related risks        24

      3.2. Fragmentation is unfolding via multiple channels across         24
           African economies, exacerbating challenges

      3.3. Opportunities for African economies amid global turbulence     28

Conclusion                                                   31

Appendix: Quantitative analysis output                              32

Contributors                                                  36

Endnotes                                                    38





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                                         Deepening Divides: The Cost of a More Fragmented Financial System   2

June 2026   Deepening Divides:
            The Cost of a More Fragmented Financial System



   Foreword